作为渠道鼎盛的标志，2013年7月，百度选择19亿美元收购了91手机助手，创造了当时中国互联网产业最大规模的并购记录。

　　留给渠道的疑问在于，在一个市场高度成熟，优质产品近乎垄断，大厂纷纷转向自身的官方渠道时，第三方的渠道是否还有必要存在?

　　这个并购案在当时一度遭到了360的狙击，360、百度两大渠道巨头都寄望于收购91来扩大自己在行业中的优势。

　　收购的效果立竿见影，根据数据调研机构EnfoDesk易观智库发布的《2013年第4季度中国移动应用分发市场监测报告》显示，截至2013年第4季度，百度系分发平台的市场份额达到了41.2%反超360，位居行业第一。另外，百度也成为了首个日均分发量1亿的应用渠道。

　　实际上，按照当时的价格来看，19亿美元是否虚高存在很大疑问，但紧随而来的渠道热，以及渠道所展现的价值，以及从2013年下半年开始的手游公司一个接连一个的以超高的价格并入上市公司，19亿美元着实是一个很划算的收购。

　　但在今天，这个当时创造了中国互联网产业并购史的收购，可能最终以被打包出售而告终，根据多家媒体的报告，百度游戏即将被整体出售。从19亿美元的天价收购，再到今天所面临的即将被出售的命运，在百度游戏身上，实际上所折射的就是中国手游渠道的现状，从发展之初拥有着绝对话语权的分发渠道正在逐渐崩塌，展现在我们面前的是一个正越来越像当年端游发行模式的手游发行，官方下载。

　　在渠道圈这样一个疑问正在诞生，冬天已经来了，但冬天是否会过去?

　　野蛮的渠道，5/5分成起步

　　在很多场合，我都曾说过这样一个例子，2013年手游刚刚开始爆发，在当年的CJ上，某手游公司CEO兴致勃勃的从武汉到上海寻找机会，但原定4天的行程被缩短至2天，在他的总结中，手游渠道傲慢的态度和80%起步的分成比例令他望而却步也印象深刻。

　　在2013年，渠道和CP之间，5/5分成是起步，即便如此，这也局限于十分少数的几款当时月流水可以达到2000-3000万的现象级产品上。而更为普遍的分成模式是3/7分，渠道拿70%，剩下30%由CP和发行方分享。

　　在当年的一场论坛上，蓝港CEO王峰曾表示，三年内守住5/5分账就是手游的黄金分割线，可以让手游企业研发出更健康的产品，彼时蓝港旗下《王者之剑》目前月流水是2200万，可以算是顶级产品。

　　按理来说，游戏有着高度的内容导向，渠道本不应该在这场博弈当中占据多大的话语权。我们可以以影视来举例，在影视行业，向来只有视频网站、各大卫视争抢优质的内容，比如一部好莱坞大片，肯定是各大视频平台之间互相抬价争抢的，而不可能出现制片方委曲求全的要和某平台合作。

　　这就是因为内容导向的原因，用户更多的是因为要看这部电影才来到你的平台，而不是因为你这个视频平台给我推了什么电影，我就看什么电影。这也是至今为止，视频平台之间依旧在花高价争抢优质内容的原因。

　　同属内容性产品，手游却出现了截然相反的情况，其主要原因在于当时的手游产业属于发展的早期。

　　渠道霸权的原因：产品过剩、同质化严重、人口红利

　　　　（On many occasions, I have said such an example, hand tour in 2013 has just begun to erupt, in the year CJ, CEO of a hand tour company from Shanghai to Wuhan to find the opportunity, but the original four-day trip was Shortened to 2 days, in his summary, the arrogant attitude of hand-travel channels and 80% of the start into the proportion of his discouraged impressed.

　　In 2013, between the channel and the CP, 5/5 into the start, even so, this is also limited to a very small number of months at the current water can reach 2000-3000 million phenomenon-level products. The more common model is divided into 3/7, channel to take 70%, and the remaining 30% by the CP and the issuer to share.

　　In a forum that year, the blue-Hong Kong CEO Wang Feng has said that within three years to keep the 5/5 sub-account is the golden tour of the travel line, you can let the company developed a more healthy health products, when the blue-Hong Kong's " Sword "is currently on the water is 22 million, can be regarded as top products.

　　Logically speaking, the game has a high degree of content-oriented, the channel should not be in this game which occupy much of the right to speak. We can take video to example, in the film and television industry, has always been only video sites, major TV contention for quality content, such as a Hollywood blockbusters, certainly between the major video platform bidding for each other, and can not occur Producer to compromise and a platform to cooperate.

　　This is because the content-oriented reasons, the user is more because the movie came to your platform, not because you video platform to give me what the movie, I see what movies. This is so far, the video platform is still high in contention for high-quality content for the reason.

　　Belong to the content of products, hand tour has appeared in the opposite situation, the main reason is that at that time the hand travel industry belongs to the early development.

　　Channel hegemony reasons: product excess, homogenization of serious demographic dividend）

　　“国内目前正在研发的手机游戏预计高达近5000款，进入测试的约有3000款，而国内手机玩家总数才一亿多人，平均每款手游能摊到的用户不足3万人”，在2013年的CJ论坛上，触控科技首席执行官陈昊芝表达了他对于手游产业的担忧。

　　小到4-5人，大到上百人，仅2013年一年，就有上千家手游创业公司诞生，有过这样一个笑话，一栋居民楼里，10户，9户是手游创业团队。相较于端游、页游，手游在当时的轻资本备受青睐，一款普通的手游，从立项到研发，可能仅仅100万就足够。

　　这些创业团队，一部分是看到了手游的机会，从大公司拉上几个人跳出来创业，一部分是之前尽力了端游、页游但没有获得成功的连续创业者，还有一部分可能之前和游戏从无交集，只是懂一点编程代码就轻装上证。如果说大量的创业者，海量的产品将渠道推到了一个强势的地位，那么更为严重的是这些产品80%，甚至90%以上存在一个问题，同质化。

　　其中最具代表性的就是卡牌，随着《大掌门》、《我叫MT》的成功，一夜之间，手游市场开始集体转移到卡牌上，这种结合了策略的休闲游戏，付费坑多，符合手机的碎片化，不需要复杂的操作，换皮就可用，对于手游研发商而言，简直不能再完美。

　　数据显示，在2013年当年，卡牌手游占据了手游市场65%的市场，在AppStore 2013年Top50榜单当中40%是卡牌。同质化严重，换皮成风，直接决定了渠道的强势地位进一步加剧，成为了完完全全的霸权主义，渠道给不给量，成为一个产品是否获得成功最重要的因素。

　　当然，除了这些由CP自身原因导致的渠道霸权外，渠道自身也有原因，海量的“人口红利”。

　　根据《中国游戏产业报告》的数据，在2013年6月，中国手游用户的数量是1.7亿，到了2013年年底，这一数字突破了3亿，仅仅半年的时间，增长接近一倍。相比于端游，手游的本质就是大众化，端游发展了20年，用户的数量也就超过1亿，但手游在短短的几年时间，就超过了端游的几倍。

　　大量的非游戏核心用户进入手游的世界，这部分用户对于如何挑选游戏本就没有目的，就如最初那一代的网民依赖hao123这样的网址大全，他们一开始也会顺着渠道的推荐走，那个时候的渠道，高峰的时候，每天增加数百万这样的用户，这些用户直接被渠道给高价卖给了一个个CP。

　　手里握着如此丰厚的资源，渠道的话语权自然加大。

　　霸权旁落，硬核并不是原因

　　但是，这样的情况却在2015年开始逐渐发生了一些变化，并在2016年加剧。

　　根据360的财报显示，2014年360的互联网增值服务营收(主要来自于游戏平台业务)同比增长141.9%为6.112亿美元。而到了2015年Q1互联网增值服务营收为1.337亿美元，同比增长7.1%，环比下滑20.1%，Q2(宣布私有化前最后可查数据)则是1.222亿美元，同比下滑16.4%，环比下滑8.6%。

　　可以看出，从2015年开始，保持高速增长的游戏业务增长开始放缓甚至出现倒退。渠道的霸权开始初次展现崩塌的苗头。

　　当然，有声音认为，导致类似百度、360这一类渠道走低的原因还有硬核联盟的出现，在手机分发的链条当中，终端>OS>ROM>应用商店>现象级App，如小米、华为们这些硬件手机直接从终端切入。

　　随着这几年手机厂商对于内容营收的重视，应用分发这一块正逐渐开始发力，2015年更是几家手机厂商牵头成立了硬核联盟，他们的出现，切分了很大一块属于百度们的市场，众多用户在跟换手机之后，会选择直接使用手机自带的商店进行下载。

　　也就是说，原本属于360、百度们的市场被小米、华为等开始蚕食，从而导致类似百度、360这样的渠道开始走弱，但整体的第三方分发渠道市场规模依旧十分可观。

　　但是，我们从一份数据当中却发现了问题，来自小米官方的数据：2015年1-6月开发者分成为5.8亿元，2016年1-6月，开发者分成为6亿。

　　可以看到，相比于2015年，2016年，小米在开发者分成的数据上并没有多大的增长，而且这个没有增长的背景还是小米从2015年6月的200亿次总下载激增到2016年6月的500亿次总下载的背景下。

　　从中可以看到，实际上无论是360、百度，还是小米、华为，实际上在应用分发这一层面的收入上都受到了影响，也就是说，整个第三方分发渠道都开始了急速的倒退，导致这一结果的原因和中国手游市场的发展分不开关系。

　　市场垄断、发力官服，渠道的未来堪忧

　　2016年，移动游戏以17.7%的同比增长，819.2亿元的营收，49.5%的市场占比完成了对端游的全面反超，结束了端游近20年的霸权。

　　看上去，一切都很美好，一个依旧在保持一定速度增长的巨大蛋糕，诱惑满满，但是真实的情况却截然相反，在2015年所呈现的寡头化趋势在这一年愈发的加剧。

　　公司层面，继2015年腾讯与网易两者吃掉中国手游市场接近55%的市场份额的背景下，在2016年上半年这两者占据了约65%市场份额，考虑到下半年的《阴阳师》，2016年这两大巨头有望吃下70%的市场份额，甚至更高，接近垄断。

　　产品层面，TOP10的手游产品营收达到357.6亿元，占据整体手游市场43.7%的市场份额，这10款产品当中，仅一款《问道》是非腾讯、网易系游戏。

　　这样的垄断所带来的是中小CP愈发艰难的境况，生存空间被无限挤压，但这仅仅是一方面，另外一方面就是渠道受到的巨大冲击。当市场中的优质产品高度集中于腾讯、网易两大巨头，当巨人、西山居、完美等等当年端游时代的巨头选择和腾讯合作，对于渠道而言，他们的溢价权开始急速走低。

　　而走低的背后，是手游的内容属性开始放大，随着人口红利的消失，手游的用户无限逼近中国移动互联网整体的用户，渠道的新增用户增长开始放缓，日均分发量开始下滑，渠道某种时候所体现的类似上述所说的“hao123”的导航效果不再显著。

　　新用户的增长趋近于无，老用户开始升级，在选择产品时有了主观的选择性，更多的时候是通过用户之间的口碑传播，或者选择有品质保证的大厂出品。

　　手游厂商开始逐渐发力官服，区别于渠道服，官服能够享受到更加好的服务，相比于官服，渠道服的活跃度往往是开服的那一段时间，之后就开始逐渐转变为鬼服，另外在活动上，官服相比于渠道服也更多，最重要的是无论是在游戏的稳定、游戏的环境、游戏的更新速度，以及游戏账号的安全保障等等方面，官服都占据优势。

　　实际上，早在2013年，盛大的《百万亚瑟王》就曾由于种种原因，绕开渠道，用官服这种模式，在当时取得了十分不错的成绩，但后来由于环境不成熟，而后续乏力。但现在，随着用户、市场逐渐开始走向成熟，这种方式被认为才是手游的未来，也就是从官方渠道下载，享受官方的服务，而非第三方的渠道服务，这就有点类似当年的端游，一切从官网渠道走。

　　根据一些非官方的数据显示，《阴阳师》的玩家当中有50%在官服，另外50%在渠道服，而网易旗下另外一款游戏《迷你西游》的安卓渠道收入95%更是来自网易自身的官服渠道。相比于渠道对于产品只认流水，KPI，显然，官方会看的更加长远，类似充值返利这样的在渠道当中盛行的模式，官方的态度一直是明确的打击，以确保游戏的可玩性和生命周期。

　　正如网易丁磊所说，或许渠道可以支撑二、三流的产品，但真正一流的产品对于渠道的依赖已经没有那么严重了。

　　网易、腾讯系这样的巨头完全不担心渠道是否会对产品进行倒流，他们的产品可以完成流量的自我转化，更多时候是渠道会求着这两大厂商的产品上线他们的渠道。

　　最为深刻的就是2016年年初那会的《皇室战争》的上线，几乎所有第三方的渠道都在为一款产品做尽可能多的宣传，360为此拿出了S级别的资源，百度、UC九游等也纷纷如此，不惜一切代价。当中的逻辑在于渠道开始变得极度依赖好的产品，因为只有这样才能留住用户，就如为何各大商场即便亏本也要引进一些厂家的原因。也就是说从最初的渠道导流，到依靠优质的产品来引流，或者保流，再通过其它产品变现。

　　这也是导致为何百度游戏空有十几亿流水，但却很难赚钱的主要原因，也是360财报当中有关游戏的营收自2015年连连下滑的原因。

　　真正高流水的顶级产品，渠道的溢价不高，所能分得的利润微乎其微，甚至是在赔本赚吆喝式的引入顶级产品，而一些可以获得高分成的产品在流水上却又差强人意。这个时候，手游开始逐渐像影视产业，视频平台为了优质的影视作品一掷千金，为了吸引用户，留住用户。

　　2013年渠道的霸权就在眼前，仅仅3年时光，斗转星移，还原在我们面前的是一个正在逐渐崩塌的渠道现状。

　　百度游戏即将被打包出售只是其一，豌豆荚的坚持最终败给现实选择在去年年中2亿美元卖身阿里同样是一个很好的例证，另外从2015年开始，360选择从分发涉足独代发行，在2016接连发行了《幻城》、《迷城物语》、《圣斗士星矢：重生》、刀剑神域《黑衣剑士》、《大奇幻时代》是其三。

　　如今，留给渠道的疑问在于，在一个市场高度成熟，优质产品近乎垄断，大厂纷纷转向自身的官方渠道时，第三方的渠道是否还有必要存在?

　　当用户在选择产品时，第一选择大厂、大制作，第二直奔官网下载之时，第三方渠道看上去是没有了存在的必要，用户已经完成了自我的分层，优质用户进入优质渠道，轻度、休闲用户进入渠道服。

（　　"Domestic mobile games are currently being developed as much as 5,000 models are expected to enter the test of about 3,000, while the total number of domestic mobile phone players was more than 100 million people, the average hand can travel to each share of less than 30,000 users," in 2013 CJ forum, touch technology CEO Chen Hao Chi expressed his concern for the hand tour industry.

　　Small to 4-5 people, large to hundreds of people, only in 2013 a year, there are thousands of hand tour business was born, there is such a joke, a residential building, 10, 9 is the hand tour business team . Compared to the end travel, page travel, hand tour at the time of light capital favor, an ordinary hand tour, from project to research and development, may be just 100 million is enough.

　　These entrepreneurial team, part of the opportunity to see the hand tour, a few people from the big companies to jump out of business, in part, before the end of the tour, the page tour but did not succeed in the continuous entrepreneurs, and some may be before the game From no intersection, just know a little programming code on the light on the card. If a large number of entrepreneurs, massive products will channel pushed to a strong position, then more serious is that 80% of these products, or even 90% of the existence of a problem, homogenization.

　　One of the most representative is the card, with the "big head", "My name is MT" success overnight overnight, the hand travel market began to collectively transferred to the card, this combination of the strategy of casual games, Pay pit, in line with the fragmentation of mobile phones, do not need complex operations, for skin can be used, for hand tour developers, simply can not be perfect.

　　Data show that in 2013 that year, the card hand tour accounted for 65% of the market hand tour market, in the App Top 2013 Top50 list of 40% of cards. Homogeneity serious, change the skin into the wind, directly determines the channel's strong position further aggravated, has become completely hegemonic, the channel to not give a volume, become a product is the most important factor in the success.

　　Of course, in addition to these reasons caused by the CP own channel hegemony, the channel itself has a reason, a massive "demographic dividend."

　　According to the "China Game Industry Report" data, in June 2013, the number of Chinese hand-travel users is 170 million, by the end of 2013, this figure exceeded 300 million, just half a year's time, growth nearly doubled. Compared to the end of the tour, the essence of hand travel is popular, the development of the end of 20 years, the number of users will be more than 100 million, but the hand tour in just a few years time, more than several times the endorsement.

　　A large number of non-gaming core users to enter the world of hand travel, this part of the user how to select the game on this no purpose, as the first generation of Internet users rely on hao123 such sites Daquan, they will follow the channel's recommendation to go, At that time the channel, the peak time, millions of such users every day, these users are directly channel to the high price of a CP sold.

　　Holding the hands of such a rich resources, channels of natural right to increase.

　　Hegemony, the hard core is not the reason

　　However, such a situation began in 2015, some gradual changes, and in 2016 intensified.

　　According to 360 results show that in 2014 360 Internet value-added services revenue (mainly from the gaming platform business) grew 141.9% to 611.2 million US dollars. Q1 2015, Internet value-added services revenue was 1.337 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.1%, down 20.1%, Q2 (announced last privatization before the data can be checked) is 122.2 million US dollars, down 16.4%, the chain fell 8.6 / RTI & gt;

　　It can be seen, from 2015 onwards, to maintain rapid growth of the game business growth began to slow down or even backwards. Channel hegemony began to show signs of collapse.

　　Of course, there are voices that lead to similar Baidu, 360 this type of channel down the reasons there are hard-core alliance, in the chain of mobile phone distribution, terminal> OS> ROM> App Store> Phenomenon App, such as millet, Huawei These hardware mobile phones directly from the terminal cut.

　　With the mobile phone manufacturers for the past few years the importance of revenue for the content, application distribution this one is gradually beginning to force, in 2015 is led by several mobile phone manufacturers to set up a hard-core alliance, their emergence, cut a large part of Baidu their market, many users with the change after the phone, will choose to use the phone directly to the store to download.

　　In other words, the original belongs to 360, Baidu's market is millet, Huawei and other began to erode, leading to similar Baidu, 360 such channels began to weaken, but the overall distribution channels of third-party market size is still very impressive.

　　However, we found a problem from the data, the official data from the millet: January-June 2015 developers divided into 580 million yuan, 2016 January-June, developers divided into 600 million.

　　You can see, compared to 2015, 2016, millet in the developer into the data and not much growth, and this growth is not the background or millet in June 2015 from the 20 billion total download surge to 2016 June's 50 billion total downloads in the background.

　　It can be seen, in fact, whether it is 360, Baidu, or millet, Huawei, in fact, in the application of this level of income distribution are affected, that is, the entire third-party distribution channels have begun a rapid regression, Leading to the results of the reasons and the development of Chinese hand travel market inseparable from the relationship.

　　Market monopoly, hair force official uniform, the channel's future worrying

　　In 2016, mobile games to 17.7% year-on-year growth, 81.92 billion yuan in revenue, 49.5% of the market accounted for complete overtake of the end, the end of nearly 20 years of hegemony.

　　It seems that everything is fine, a huge cake is still in a certain growth rate, the temptation is full, but the real situation is the opposite, in 2015, the oligarchy presented in the trend of increasing in the year.

　　Company level, following the 2015 Tencent and NetEase both eat Chinese hand travel market close to 55% market share in the context of the first half of 2016, the two accounted for about 65% market share, taking into account the second half of the "yin and yang Division "in 2016, the two giants are expected to eat 70% of the market share, or even higher, close to the monopoly.

　　Product level, TOP10 hand travel product revenue reached 35.76 billion yuan, accounting for 43.7% of the overall hand travel market share, which 10 products, only a "asked" non-Tencent, Netease game.

　　This monopoly is brought about by the increasingly difficult situation of small and medium CP, living space is infinite squeeze, but this is only one hand, the other is the channel by a huge impact. When the market high-quality products are highly concentrated in the Tencent, Netease two giants, when the giant, Xishanju, perfect, and so the end of the era of choice and Tencent cooperation, for the channel, their premium began to rapidly lower.

　　The lower the back, is the content of hand travel content began to enlarge, with the disappearance of the demographic dividend, hand travel users unlimited approaching the overall mobile Internet users in China, channels of new user growth began to slow down, the daily distribution began to decline , The channel at some point embodied similar to the above-mentioned "hao123" navigation effect is no longer significant.

　　New users tend to grow close to the old, the user began to upgrade the old, in the choice of products with subjective selectivity, more often by word of mouth spread among users, or choose a quality assurance manufacturers produced.

　　Compared to the official service, channel service activity is often open service that period of time, and then began to gradually change the official service, the official uniforms, For the ghost suits, the other at the event, the official service compared to the channel service is also more important, whether it is in the game's stability, the game environment, the game update speed, and game account security, Uniforms have an advantage.

　　In fact, as early as 2013, the grand "King Arthur million" once for various reasons, to bypass the channel, with official service this model, at the time achieved very good results, but later because of immature, and follow-up Fatigue. But now, with the user, the market gradually began to mature, this approach is considered the future of hand tour, that is downloaded from the official channels, enjoy the official service, rather than third-party channel services, which is somewhat similar to the year Of the end tour, all from the official network channels.

　　According to some unofficial data show, "Onmyouji" players in 50% of the official uniform, the other 50% in the channel service, and NetEase's another game "Mini Journey" Andrews channel revenue 95% from NetEase Their official service channels. Compared to the channel for the product only to recognize the flow of water, KPI, obviously, the official will see more long-term, similar to the recharge rebate popular among the channels in the model, the official attitude has been a clear blow to ensure the game playability and Life cycle.

　　As NetEase Ding Lei said, perhaps the channel can support two or three streams of products, but the real first-class products for the channel's dependence has not been so serious.

　　Netease, Tencent Department of such giants do not worry about whether the channel will be back on the product, their products can complete the flow of self-transformation, more often the channel will be seeking these two manufacturers of their products on-line channels.

　　The most profound is that early in 2016 that will be the "Royal War" on the line, almost all third-party channels for a product to do as much publicity, 360 this out of the S-level resources, Baidu, UC Nine travel, etc. have also been so, at all costs. The logic is that the channel began to become extremely dependent on a good product, because the only way to retain the user, as if the major shopping malls even if the loss should introduce some manufacturers reasons. In other words, from the initial channel diversion, to rely on high-quality products to drainage, or preservation, and then realized through other products.

　　This is why the Baidu game has more than a billion water, but it is difficult to make money the main reason, but also the 360 ​​earnings which the game's revenue from the decline in 2015 again and again the reason.

　　The real high-water top products, channel premium is not high, the share of the profits can be minimal, even at the expense of making yell-like introduction of top products, and some can get high into the products in the water but unsatisfactory. At this time, hand tour began to gradually like the film and television industry, video platform for high-quality film and television works, in order to attract users, to retain users.

　　Channel hegemony in 2013 in front of just three years time, the passage of time, restore in front of us is a channel is gradually collapsed the status quo.

　　Baidu game is about to be packaged for sale is just one of the pea pod insistence eventually lost to the reality of choice in the middle of last year 200 million US dollars selling Ali is also a good example of another from 2015 onwards, 360 select from distribution involved , In 2016 issued a series of "Magic City", "Lost City Story", "Saint Seiya: rebirth", the sword of God domain "Black Swordsman", "Big Fantasy" is its three.

　　Now, the question left to the channel, in a highly mature market, high-quality products near monopoly, manufacturers have turned to their own official channels, the third-party channels are necessary to exist?

　　When the user in the choice of products, the first choice of manufacturers, large production, the second straight to download the official website, the third-party channels seem to be no need to exist, the user has completed the self-stratification, quality users into quality Channels, light, casual users into the channel service.）